Atlantic Basin Hurricane Tracker

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

      000
ABNT20 KNHC 210516
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Bertha, located over the northeastern Gulf of America.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
      

Summary for Tropical Storm Bertha (AT2/AL022026)

...BERTHA RESUMES A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH GULF COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 the center of Bertha was located near 28.7, -86.4 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Bertha Public Advisory Number 8

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 000
WTNT32 KNHC 210837
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
 
...BERTHA RESUMES A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH GULF COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 86.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border
in Louisiana
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County line in Florida westward to the Florida/Alabama
border
* West of the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border to Morgan City,
Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.
 
Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was 
located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 86.4 West. Bertha is 
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow 
northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected today 
followed by a turn westward by the middle part of this week. On the 
forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf 
coast during the next several days.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible later today, followed 
by gradual weakening through the middle of this week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the northern Gulf coast by late today into Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the
Florida Panhandle later today. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area in Louisiana by late tonight into
Wednesday.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to AL/FL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.
 
RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 
inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches through Thursday 
along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western 
Florida into southern Louisiana, including southern portions of 
Alabama and Mississippi. This rainfall may produce areas of flash 
flooding, especially in urban areas.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026 000
WTNT22 KNHC 210834
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022026
0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N  86.4W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  70SE  70SW   0NW.
4 M SEAS....  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N  86.4W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  86.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.0N  86.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  90SE  90SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.4N  87.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  80SE  90SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.5N  88.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  80SE  80SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.3N  90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  70SE  70SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.3N  92.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N  94.2W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 30.4N  96.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N  86.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 000
WTNT42 KNHC 210841
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
 
Before the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft departed 
Bertha, its final fix indicated the storm was continuing to deepen 
with a 998 mb pressure, with peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 46 
kt. In addition, an earlier scatterometer pass at 0322 UTC showed a 
peak surface wind retrieval of 43 kt on the southern side of the 
storm that was not fully sampled by the aircraft. These data 
provided the basis to increase Bertha's intensity to 45 kt on the 
intermediate advisory. Despite this increase in intensity, TDR data 
from the earlier NOAA-P3 mission indicated that Bertha's circulation 
remains tilted south with height, and satellite imagery shows the 
low-level center now mostly exposed north of the deepest convection 
due to increasing vertical wind shear. The initial intensity will 
thus remain 45 kt for this advisory. 
 
Tracking the low-level swirl on satellite this morning indicates 
that Bertha has resumed a slow northwestward motion at 315/4 kt. The 
large-scale steering pattern is slowly evolving as a mid-level ridge 
currently over the Rockies slides southeastward while a longwave 
trough remains over the northeastern United States. This evolution 
should result in Bertha moving slowly northwestward or 
west-northwestward, turning more westward by the middle of the week. 
Complicating this track forecast, however, is the expectation that 
Bertha will become highly sheared in 24-48 h, and bursts of deep 
convection on its southwestern side may try to tug the storm's 
center left of the steering motion. The latest NHC track forecast is 
slightly north of the previous one for the first 24-36 h, but then 
falls back to near the prior forecast track after that time, close 
to a blend of the most recent Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) 
and TVCN solutions. It is worth noting that the track forecast 
beyond 48 h assumes Bertha is able to maintain its status as a 
tropical cyclone, with several models suggesting Bertha could 
degenerate into a trough beyond this time period. 
 
Northeasterly vertical wind shear over Bertha is already diagnosed 
near 25 kt from UW-CIMSS, and it is forecast to increase further 
over the next 24 h. While sea-surface temperatures are plenty warm, 
nearby dry air could be imported by this shear into Bertha's center, 
disrupting its structure. While periodic bursts of deep convection 
will likely continue to occur over the next 24-48 h, the latest NHC 
intensity forecast only shows a slight additional intensification 
today before the shear becomes prohibitively strong. In fact, most 
of the guidance suggests Bertha will begin to slowly weaken after 12 
h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now reflects this 
reasoning. Once Bertha moves near or over the Gulf coast of 
Louisiana, some guidance shows Bertha's circulation becoming 
elongated due to the combination of land interaction and high shear 
affecting the tropical storm. While the latest NHC forecast still 
shows Bertha remaining a tropical cyclone along the Gulf coast 
through 72 h, another possibility is that the system degenerates 
into a trough as it succumbs to the negative environmental 
conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is roughly in the middle of 
the guidance envelope.

As mentioned previously, the current shear affecting Bertha is 
likely to give the cyclone a very asymmetric structure, with the 
bulk of the rainfall and much of the wind expected to occur on the 
southern side of the storm center. 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions 
of the Gulf Coast from Alabama westward to southeastern Louisiana 
tonight and Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 
Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the Florida 
Panhandle, Metro New Orleans, and the southern Gulf Coast of 
Louisiana, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
 
2. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Alabama, Mississippi,
and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm
surge is possible.
 
3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the
progress of this system, as additional watches or warnings could be
required for portions of that area later today.
 
4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along 
the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from the Florida Big 
Bend region to southern Louisiana, with isolated instances of flash 
flooding possible westward into portions of the Texas coast later in 
the week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 28.7N  86.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 29.0N  86.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 29.4N  87.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 29.5N  88.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 29.3N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  23/1800Z 29.3N  92.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  24/0600Z 29.6N  94.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...ON THE COAST
 96H  25/0600Z 30.4N  96.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Bertha Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026 000
FONT12 KNHC 210838
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022026               
0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFAM 290N 870W 34 72  18(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
GFAM 290N 870W 50 23  10(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
GFAM 290N 870W 64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   2( 2)  16(18)   6(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
GFAM 280N 890W 34  X   6( 6)  11(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
HOUMA LA       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GFAM 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFAM 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   1(16)   X(16)
CAMERON LA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
JASPER TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFAM 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Storm Bertha Graphics

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2026 09:23:02 GMT

      

Tropical Storm Bertha Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2026 09:45:57 GMT

      

Tropical Storm Bertha Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2026 08:37:58 GMT

      

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL

Issued at 456 AM EDT

Local Statement for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Issued at 405 AM CDT

Local Statement for Mobile, AL/Pensacola, FL

Issued at 421 AM CDT