Atlantic Basin Hurricane Tracker
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
178
ABNT20 KNHC 211719
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bertha, located over the northeastern Gulf of America.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Summary for Tropical Storm Bertha (AT2/AL022026)
...BERTHA BEGINNING TO TURN WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... As of 1:00 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 the center of Bertha was located near 29.3, -86.8 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Bertha Public Advisory Number 9a
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 000 WTNT32 KNHC 211745 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 100 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 ...BERTHA BEGINNING TO TURN WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 86.8W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida to the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish Line in Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish Line to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana * Metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 86.8 West. Bertha is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected later today, with a continued westward motion forecast Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, and gradual weakening is forecast Wednesday through Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service station in Panama City Beach, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a gust of 49 mph (79 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across portions of the warning area later today through Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Louisiana by late Wednesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River, FL...1-3 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches through Thursday along the central Gulf Coast from western Florida into southern Louisiana. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero. SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026 000 WTNT22 KNHC 211454 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026 1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 86.3W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 86.3W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 86.2W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.4N 87.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.5N 88.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 90SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.4N 89.5W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 70SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.3N 91.3W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.4N 93.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.9N 94.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 31.0N 97.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 86.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 000 WTNT42 KNHC 211457 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Bertha has become slightly better organized this morning. While the low-level center was fully exposed overnight, new deep convection has developed this morning and the center has become at least partially tucked underneath the cold overcast. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the storm, and they reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 62 kt within the convection to the southeast of the center, along with layer-averaged dropsonde winds that support raising the initial intensity to 50 kt. The central pressure has fallen slightly to 995 mb. Bertha has deviated north of the forecast track during the past several hours, and the initial motion is north-northwestward (345/3 kt). The near-term track forecast has been adjusted northward to account for this development. While Bertha is currently in fairly weak steering currents, a mid-level ridge centered near the Rockies is expected to move southeastward during the next couple of days. This should cause Bertha to turn more west-northwestward and then westward while it moves near or along the northern Gulf Coast through midweek. While the track models are overall in good agreement on this scenario, there are differences in how much land interaction with southeastern Louisiana will occur, and whether a new center may redevelop off the coast. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast beyond 24 h, and once again this forecast assumes Bertha is able to maintain a cohesive circulation as it passes near or over the northern Gulf Coast. Bertha remains an asymmetric tropical storm, with most of the rainfall and the strongest winds occurring to the south and east of the center. Strong northeasterly vertical wind shear over Bertha is forecast to persist today and tonight, which should make it difficult for Bertha to strengthen much more. Convection is expected to continue pulsing to the south of Bertha's center during this time, and the NHC forecast overall shows gradual weakening over the next few days. The extent of this weakening will depend on how much land interaction occurs during the next couple of days, and it remains possible that Bertha could degenerate into a trough even sooner than forecast due to a disrupted structure within hostile environmental conditions. Some notable watch/warning changes were made with this advisory package. The Tropical Storm Warning was extended eastward across the Florida Panhandle and westward to the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish Line in Louisiana. In addition, the Storm Surge Watch has been replaced with a Coastal Flood Warning issued by the local forecast office. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected to occur between the Mississippi/Alabama Border and the Mouth of the Mississippi River, with peak values up to 4 ft above ground level. Key Messages: 1. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana later today and Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible for Metro New Orleans and the southern Gulf Coast of Louisiana, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected. 3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of that area. 4. Isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along the Gulf Coast from western Florida into southern Louisiana and the Upper Texas coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 29.3N 86.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 29.4N 87.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 29.5N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 29.4N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 23/1200Z 29.3N 91.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 24/0000Z 29.4N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 24/1200Z 29.9N 94.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1200Z 31.0N 97.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Bertha Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026 000
FONT12 KNHC 211455
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PANAMA CITY FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFAM 290N 870W 34 95 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFAM 290N 870W 50 23 5(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
GFAM 290N 870W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BURAS LA 34 X 4( 4) 20(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27)
GFAM 280N 890W 34 X 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GFAM 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFAM 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16)
CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFAM 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER REINHARTTropical Storm Bertha Graphics
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Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2026 15:22:31 GMT
Tropical Storm Bertha Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
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Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2026 15:53:33 GMT
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