Atlantic Basin Hurricane Tracker

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

      178 
ABNT20 KNHC 211719
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Bertha, located over the northeastern Gulf of America.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven
      

Summary for Tropical Storm Bertha (AT2/AL022026)

...BERTHA BEGINNING TO TURN WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... As of 1:00 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 the center of Bertha was located near 29.3, -86.8 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Bertha Public Advisory Number 9a

Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 000
WTNT32 KNHC 211745
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
100 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
 
...BERTHA BEGINNING TO TURN WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...  
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 86.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida to the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish
Line in Louisiana
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish Line to the 
Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was 
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 86.8 West. Bertha is 
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the 
west-northwest and west is expected later today, with a continued 
westward motion forecast Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast 
track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf Coast during 
the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change in strength is expected today, and gradual weakening 
is forecast Wednesday through Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) 
from the center. A National Ocean Service station in Panama City 
Beach, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68 
km/h) and a gust of 49 mph (79 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 
995 mb (29.39 inches).

 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across 
portions of the warning area later today through Wednesday. Tropical 
storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Louisiana by 
late Wednesday.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River, FL...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft
Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River,
LA...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.
 
RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches through
Thursday along the central Gulf Coast from western Florida into
southern Louisiana. This rainfall may produce isolated flash
flooding, especially in urban areas.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward 
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells 
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026 000
WTNT22 KNHC 211454
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022026
1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  86.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  80SE  80SW   0NW.
4 M SEAS....  0NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  86.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N  86.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.4N  87.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  90SE  90SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.5N  88.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  80SE  90SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.4N  89.5W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  70SE  70SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.3N  91.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.4N  93.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.9N  94.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 31.0N  97.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N  86.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 000
WTNT42 KNHC 211457
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
 
Bertha has become slightly better organized this morning. While the 
low-level center was fully exposed overnight, new deep convection 
has developed this morning and the center has become at least 
partially tucked underneath the cold overcast. The Air Force 
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the storm, and they 
reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 62 kt within the 
convection to the southeast of the center, along with layer-averaged 
dropsonde winds that support raising the initial intensity to 50 kt. 
The central pressure has fallen slightly to 995 mb.

Bertha has deviated north of the forecast track during the past 
several hours, and the initial motion is north-northwestward (345/3 
kt). The near-term track forecast has been adjusted northward to 
account for this development. While Bertha is currently in fairly 
weak steering currents, a mid-level ridge centered near the Rockies 
is expected to move southeastward during the next couple of days. 
This should cause Bertha to turn more west-northwestward and then 
westward while it moves near or along the northern Gulf Coast 
through midweek. While the track models are overall in good 
agreement on this scenario, there are differences in how much land 
interaction with southeastern Louisiana will occur, and whether a 
new center may redevelop off the coast. Little change was made to 
the NHC track forecast beyond 24 h, and once again this forecast 
assumes Bertha is able to maintain a cohesive circulation as it 
passes near or over the northern Gulf Coast.

Bertha remains an asymmetric tropical storm, with most of the 
rainfall and the strongest winds occurring to the south and east of 
the center. Strong northeasterly vertical wind shear over Bertha is 
forecast to persist today and tonight, which should make it 
difficult for Bertha to strengthen much more. Convection is expected 
to continue pulsing to the south of Bertha's center during this 
time, and the NHC forecast overall shows gradual weakening over the 
next few days. The extent of this weakening will depend on how much 
land interaction occurs during the next couple of days, and it 
remains possible that Bertha could degenerate into a trough even 
sooner than forecast due to a disrupted structure within hostile 
environmental conditions.

Some notable watch/warning changes were made with this advisory 
package. The Tropical Storm Warning was extended eastward across 
the Florida Panhandle and westward to the Terrebonne/Lafourche 
Parish Line in Louisiana. In addition, the Storm Surge Watch has 
been replaced with a Coastal Flood Warning issued by the local 
forecast office. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still 
expected to occur between the Mississippi/Alabama Border and the 
Mouth of the Mississippi River, with peak values up to 4 ft above 
ground level.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions 
of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to 
southeastern Louisiana later today and Wednesday, where a Tropical 
Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible 
for Metro New Orleans and the southern Gulf Coast of Louisiana, 
where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
 
2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and 
Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected. 
 
3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the 
progress of this system, as additional watches or warnings could be 
required for portions of that area.
 
4. Isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday 
along the Gulf Coast from western Florida into southern Louisiana 
and the Upper Texas coast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 29.3N  86.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 29.4N  87.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 29.5N  88.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 29.4N  89.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  23/1200Z 29.3N  91.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 60H  24/0000Z 29.4N  93.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  24/1200Z 29.9N  94.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  25/1200Z 31.0N  97.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Storm Bertha Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026 000
FONT12 KNHC 211455
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022026               
1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PANAMA CITY FL 34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFAM 290N 870W 34 95   4(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFAM 290N 870W 50 23   5(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
GFAM 290N 870W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   4( 4)  20(24)   2(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
GFAM 280N 890W 34  X   8( 8)  10(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
HOUMA LA       34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
GFAM 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFAM 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   X(16)   X(16)
CAMERON LA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFAM 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Storm Bertha Graphics

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2026 15:22:31 GMT

      

Tropical Storm Bertha Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2026 15:53:33 GMT

      

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL

Issued at 1109 AM EDT

Local Statement for Lake Charles, LA

Issued at 1013 AM CDT

Local Statement for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Issued at 1030 AM CDT

Local Statement for Mobile, AL/Pensacola, FL

Issued at 1238 PM CDT