Central Pacific Hurricane Tracker
Graphic provided by the National Hurricane Center
Central North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ACPN50 PHFO 061131
TWOCP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lowell, located about 600 miles south-southwest of the Hawaiian
Islands, on Tropical Storm Karina, located several hundred miles
east-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Hurricane Marie,
located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
NNNN
Summary for Hurricane Lowell (CP4/EP122026)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR KAUAI AND NIIHAU... As of 5:00 AM HST Sun Sep 06 the center of Lowell was located near 14.7, -163.8 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
Hurricane Lowell Public Advisory Number 42
Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026 000 WTPA34 PHFO 061448 TCPCP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lowell Advisory Number 42 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR KAUAI AND NIIHAU... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 163.8W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII ABOUT 600 MI...960 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should monitor the progress of Lowell. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lowell was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 163.8 West. Lowell is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days, bringing the center of Lowell across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, just west of the main Hawaiian Islands, Monday night. Lowell is forecast to turn toward the north-northwest and slow down by Tuesday night after passing the Hawaiian Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Lowell is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity remain possible through this afternoon, followed by gradual weakening beginning tonight. Lowell is expected to remain a major hurricane through Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lowell can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44 PHFO. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Kauai County by Monday afternoon or evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument between Nihoa and French Frigate Shoals Monday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning Monday afternoon. Wind speeds atop and on the windward and leeward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Hurricane Lowell is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches for Kauai, with maximum totals of 14 inches possible. For the Big Island, 4 to 8 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals of 12 inches possible. For Maui, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. Across the remaining islands, rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible. This rainfall may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across Kauai County and portions of the Big Island. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep12.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Kauai County...1-3 ft Oahu...Up to 1 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp4.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions during the next several days across many of the Hawaiian islands. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 42
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026 000 WTPA24 PHFO 061447 TCMCP4 HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026 ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 163.8W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 110SW 140NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 300SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 163.8W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 163.8W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.6N 163.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.5N 163.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.0N 162.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 161.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.4N 162.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.9N 162.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 27.9N 166.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 27.7N 170.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 0SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 163.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 PHFO/HFOTCPCP4...AT 06/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 42
Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026 000 WTPA44 PHFO 061449 TCDCP4 Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 42 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft completed a mission in Lowell a few hours ago and measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 114 kt, which typically equates to an intensity of 100-105 kt. However, dropsonde data from the plane also indicated that the central pressure (943 mb) was a bit lower than previously estimated. For that reason, Lowell's currently intensity is held at 110 kt, which is also very close to the latest UW-CIMSS DPRINT and SATCON estimates. Lowell is in the midst of its anticipated sharp turn, and the current motion is north-northwestward (335/5 kt). The steering continues to be dominated by a cutoff mid-/upper-level low located about 350 n mi north-northeast of Hawaii, which is forecast to move west-southwestward and cause Lowell to accelerate toward the north and north-northeast through Monday night. The track guidance is tightly packed through that period, although some of the better-performing models (HCCA and GDMI) lie along the eastern edge of the envelope. That required an additional eastward nudge in the official forecast, bringing Lowell's center near or over the island of Nihoa in 48 hours and about 100 n mi west of Kauai County. After the center passes the Hawaiian Islands, model guidance is in good agreement that Lowell will turn westward by early Friday, but there is some disagreement on the sharpness of that turn. Vertical shear is expected to remain low for another 12 hours, so fluctuations in intensity will still be possible through this afternoon. South-southwesterly shear is forecast to increase to strong levels by tonight, which should induce a gradual weakening trend while Lowell is passing the Hawaiian Islands. However, even with the weakening, Lowell is not expected to change much in size, and tropical storm conditions are forecast to spread across Kauai and Niihau by Monday afternoon, necessitating the issuance of a tropical storm warning. Lowell is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Wednesday after passing the Hawaiian Islands, and continued weakening is expected through the end of the week due to continued shear, marginal sea surface temperatures, and dry mid-level air. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lowell is forecast to pass west of Kauai County late Monday into early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Kauai County, including Kauai and Niihau, where tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday morning. Strong wind gusts will be possible atop mountains and on windward and leeward slopes. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will begin to impact the Hawaiian Islands today and continue through early this week. Periods of heavy rain may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across Kauai County and portions of the Big Island. 3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian Islands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions of Kauai County could also produce coastal flooding and inundation of low-lying areas Monday through Monday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.7N 163.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 15.6N 163.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 17.5N 163.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 20.0N 162.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 23.0N 161.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 25.4N 162.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 26.9N 162.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 27.9N 166.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 27.7N 170.6W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026 000
FOPA14 PHFO 061448
PWSCP4
HURRICANE LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 163.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
21N 158W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) 11(11) 44(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
BARKING SANDS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BARKING SANDS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) X(22) X(22)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
20N 160W 34 X 1( 1) 39(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
20N 160W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 35(35) 29(64) X(64) X(64)
25N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14)
25N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) 21(21) 45(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
NIIHAU 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
21N 160W 34 X X( X) 35(35) 21(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
21N 160W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
21N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BUOY 51003 34 X 9( 9) 54(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
BUOY 51003 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BUOY 51003 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
NIHOA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 84(94) 3(97) X(97) X(97)
NIHOA 50 X X( X) X( X) 69(69) 9(78) X(78) X(78)
NIHOA 64 X X( X) X( X) 43(43) 10(53) X(53) X(53)
BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 68(69) 23(92) X(92) X(92)
BUOY 51101 50 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 37(58) X(58) X(58)
BUOY 51101 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) X(33) X(33)
22N 164W 34 X X( X) 20(20) 25(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46)
22N 164W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
22N 164W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
NECKER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13)
15N 165W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
15N 165W 50 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
15N 165W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
20N 165W 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
25N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)
30N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 1(25)
30N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
GARDNER PINN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
25N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
30N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)
MARO REEF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
LAYSAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
LISIANSKI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BERGHurricane Lowell Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2026 14:50:42 GMT
Local Statement for Honolulu, HI
Issued at 451 AM HST
Summary for Tropical Storm Karina (CP5/EP112026)
...KARINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL GALE TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM HST Sun Sep 06 the center of Karina was located near 22.7, -145.0 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 41
Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026 000 WTPA35 PHFO 061447 TCPCP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 41 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026 ...KARINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL GALE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 145.0W ABOUT 680 MI...1100 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 145.0 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected today, along with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Karina is forecast to become a post-tropical gale by late tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 41
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026 000 WTPA25 PHFO 061447 TCMCP5 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026 ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 145.0W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......160NE 90SE 70SW 150NW. 4 M SEAS....210NE 120SE 210SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 145.0W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 144.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 146.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 50SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.2N 147.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.5N 150.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.2N 152.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 145.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 41
Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026 000 WTPA45 PHFO 061448 TCDCP5 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 41 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026 Karina's convection has decreased significantly in coverage and intensity. Deep convection is nearly completely gone, but moderate convection with cloud tops between -10C and -30C remain on Karina's north side. The latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35-45 kt. However, out of respect for the large area of 50-53 kt wind vectors on the two ASCAT passes from around 07Z, the intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory. Moderate west-southwesterly shear, sea-surface temperatures in the 25-26C range and the dry air mass Karina is embedded in will cause the cyclone to continue weakening. It is possible that the dry airmass could prevent any deep convection from re-forming. The GFS and ECMWF models both agree that Karina should lose its convection in 12 to 24 h. Although the NHC forecast for Karina becoming post-tropical has moved up to 24 h, the gales should continue a bit longer. The low is expected to dissipate by hour 60 as it gets sheared apart by the combination of a powerful mid- to upper-level trough and outflow from Hurricane Lowell. Karina's initial motion is northwestward, or 305 degrees at 6 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected by tonight as Karina gets pulled westward by a mid-level low to its west and ridging builds in to the north of Karina. The track forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the HCCA and the GDMI. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 22.7N 145.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 23.0N 146.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 23.2N 147.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/0000Z 23.5N 150.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 08/1200Z 24.2N 152.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026 000
FOPA15 PHFO 061448
PWSCP5
TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
25N 145W 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
25N 150W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
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FORECASTER HAGENTropical Storm Karina Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2026 14:50:29 GMT
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