East Pacific Hurricane Tracker

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

      000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210527
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Hurricane Fausto, located several hundred miles southwest 
of the southern tip of Baja California. 

Eastern and Central East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of 
Mexico over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to 
west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the 
eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Southwest of Hawaii:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure 
located well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands remain disorganized. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual 
development of this system as it moves generally westward during the 
next several days.   
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs
      

Summary for Hurricane Fausto (EP1/EP062026)

...FAUSTO STEADILY STRENGTHENING... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 the center of Fausto was located near 15.4, -118.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane Fausto Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026 037 
WTPZ31 KNHC 210844
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Fausto Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026
 
...FAUSTO STEADILY STRENGTHENING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 118.0W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fausto was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 118.0 West. Fausto is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and that general motion
is expected through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest,
accompanied by an increase in forward speed, is expected on
Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next
couple of days, with Fausto forecast to near major hurricane
intensity by Wednesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west
coast of the Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday, and persist for
a couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Hurricane Fausto Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026 105 
WTPZ21 KNHC 210844
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062026
0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 118.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 65NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 120SW  50NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 118.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 117.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.1N 119.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.6N 120.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.1N 122.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.4N 124.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.8N 126.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.1N 129.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 19.1N 134.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 20.0N 139.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 120NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 118.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Hurricane Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026 000
WTPZ41 KNHC 210846
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Fausto has continued to become
better organized during the past several hours. Although modest
northerly shear continues to affect the cyclone, the central dense
overcast has recently begun to expand over the center and into the
northwestern quadrant, suggesting that the inner core is becoming
better established. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from
TAFB is now T4.5/77 kt, while objective estimates are hovering
around 65 kt. Based on a blend of these data and the improving
satellite presentation, the initial intensity is increased to 70 kt.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be 310/9 kt, and that general
motion is expected to persist through tonight as the cyclone moves
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. By Wednesday, high
pressure is forecast to build westward to the north of Fausto,
causing the system to turn west-northwestward and gradually
accelerate through the remainder of the forecast period. Track
guidance remains tightly clustered through about 72 h. Thereafter,
although the cross-track spread gradually increases, the multi-model
consensus (HCCA) and GFS have shifted southward toward the ECMWF and
Google DeepMind ensemble mean, which remain on the southern end of
the guidance envelope. The NHC forecast is very similar to the
previous, with only a slight shift southward, closely aligning with
the HCCA track.
 
Fausto is expected to move into an environment of lower vertical
wind shear while remaining over warm waters and within a moist air
mass during the next couple of days. As the modest northerly shear
begins to relax later today or tonight, conditions should support
steady to rapid strengthening through Wednesday. The NHC intensity
forecast brings Fausto to near major hurricane intensity by 36 h and
remains near the upper end of the guidance envelop. A gradual
weakening trend is expected thereafter as the cyclone moves over
progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable
environment.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 15.4N 118.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 16.1N 119.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 16.6N 120.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 17.1N 122.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 17.4N 124.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  23/1800Z 17.8N 126.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 18.1N 129.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 19.1N 134.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 20.0N 139.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Hurricane Fausto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 210845
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062026               
0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 120W       34 70  10(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 
15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  13(26)   X(26)   X(26)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  40(40)  15(55)   X(55)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   8(16)   1(17)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  60(60)  10(70)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  27(27)  10(37)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   5(16)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  46(47)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)
20N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
25N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Hurricane Fausto Graphics

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2026 09:28:45 GMT