East Pacific Hurricane Tracker

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

      000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061131
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Lowell, located about 600 miles south-southwest of the Hawaiian 
Islands, on Tropical Storm Karina, located several hundred miles 
east-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Hurricane Marie, 
located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of the 
Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this 
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the 
middle or latter portions of this week while the system moves 
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
      

Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP132026)

...MARIE TO CONTINUE PRODUCING DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 06 the center of Marie was located near 23.5, -122.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 22

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026 000
WTPZ33 KNHC 061450
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026
 
...MARIE TO CONTINUE PRODUCING DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 122.5W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 122.5 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west-
northwest is forecast tonight. Marie is then expected to resume a 
northwestward heading at a faster forward speed by Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected to continue for the 
next several days. Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical 
remnant low on Wednesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and
Southern California for the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip
current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 22

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026 000
WTPZ23 KNHC 061450
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132026
1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 122.5W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  50SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 140SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 240SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 122.5W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 122.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.1N 123.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.7N 124.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.3N 125.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.3N 127.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE   0SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.7N 127.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.7N 128.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 33.6N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 122.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 22

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026 000
WTPZ43 KNHC 061452
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Marie has become less organized since the previous advisory and no 
longer has an eye.  In fact, the northwest quadrant is completely 
void of deep convection.  The latest subjective and objective 
satellite intensity estimates range from 59-77 kt.  The initial 
intensity is lowered to 70 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 310 degrees at 8 
kt. Marie is currently feeling some pull by a mid- to upper-level 
trough currently over the U.S. west coast.  As that trough moves 
eastward on Monday and loosens its grip on Marie, the cyclone should 
turn back toward the west-northwest for a day or so.  Then, another 
mid- to upper-level low will strengthen over the Pacific to the 
northwest of Marie, causing a turn back toward the northwest, or 
possibly north-northwest on Tuesday.  The NHC track forecast is very 
similar to the previous one and closely follows the HFIP Corrected 
Consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI).  Based on 
the spread in the guidance, confidence in the track forecast is near 
average.
 
Marie has already crossed the 26C isotherm, and currently resides 
within a dry, low-shear environment.  Marie will move into steadily 
decreasing water temperatures and even drier air over the next few 
days.  Around hour 48, southwesterly vertical wind shear will 
increase significantly as Marie approaches the aforementioned mid- 
to upper-level low to its northwest.  A slightly lower intensity is 
shown in the 12-36 hour time period, mainly due to the weaker 
initial intensity along with expected steady weakening over the next 
couple of days, although the NHC intensity forecast is still at the 
high end of model suite during that time.  Marie could hang on as a 
35-40 kt tropical storm in the 48 to 72 h period as the upper-level 
low may briefly provide some favorable dynamics before the shear 
becomes too strong.  The simulated satellite imagery from the GFS 
and ECMWF models suggest that Marie should lose its convection and 
become a post-tropical remnant low just beyond the hour 72 point, so 
NHC will continue to show post-tropical after that time.  After the 
system becomes post-tropical, global models show it weakening and 
dissipating in 4 to 5 days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 23.5N 122.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 24.1N 123.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 24.7N 124.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 25.3N 125.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 26.3N 127.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 27.7N 127.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 29.7N 128.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 33.6N 131.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026 000
FOPZ13 KNHC 061450
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132026               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
25N 125W       34 42  31(73)  10(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
25N 125W       50  X  18(18)  13(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
25N 125W       64  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
30N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   3(15)   X(15)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN

Hurricane Marie Graphics

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2026 14:53:42 GMT