East Pacific Hurricane Tracker

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

      000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211720
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fausto, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip 
of Baja California. 

Eastern and Central East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of 
Mexico over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to 
west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the 
eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Southwest of Hawaii:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure 
located well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands remain disorganized. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual 
development of this system as it moves generally westward during the 
next several days.   
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
      

Summary for Hurricane Fausto (EP1/EP062026)

...FAUSTO STOPS STRENGTHENING AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Jul 21 the center of Fausto was located near 16.3, -118.8 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Fausto Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2026 251 
WTPZ31 KNHC 211438
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Fausto Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2026
 
...FAUSTO STOPS STRENGTHENING AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 118.8W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fausto was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 118.8 West. Fausto is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and that general
motion should continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest, 
accompanied by an increase in forward speed, is expected tonight 
and Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are now near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is expected to resume later today and 
continue through Wednesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west
coast of the Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday, and persist for
a couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Fausto Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026 000
WTPZ21 KNHC 211438
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062026
1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 118.8W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 65NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 120SW  50NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 105SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 118.8W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 118.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.8N 119.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.2N 121.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 123.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.8N 125.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.2N 127.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.6N 130.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 19.5N 135.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 20.3N 140.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 120NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 118.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2026 000
WTPZ41 KNHC 211439
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2026

Somewhat surprisingly, the core of Fausto has lost organization 
during the past several hours. The central convection has become 
disorganized in conventional satellite imagery, and a 0913Z AMSR 
overpass indicated that the low-level center had become partly 
exposed to the north of the convection. This is likely due to a 
resurgence in the northerly vertical shear that has been present for 
the last several days. The satellite intensity estimates have 
decreased since the last advisory, and based on these the initial 
intensity is reduced to 65 kt.

The initial motion is now estimated to be 305/10 kt. The track 
guidance forecasts a turn toward the west-northwest in the next 
12 h or so as the subtropical ridge to the northeast of the cyclone 
builds westward. A general west-northwestward to westward motion 
is then expected for the rest of the forecast period. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered through about 72 h. Thereafter, 
there remains an increase in the north-south spread between the GFS 
on the north side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF and Google 
DeepMind on the south side of the guidance envelope. The new 
forecast track has minor adjustments from the previous track, is 
similar to the previous forecast at 120 h, and lies just a little to 
the north of center of the guidance envelope.

The models continue to forecast that Fausto will reach a light-shear 
environment in the next 12-24 h. However, the cyclone is moving over 
slightly cooler sea surface temperatures, and as a result the 
intensity guidance is showing less strengthening during the first 
36-48 h than previously. It should also be noted that the 
shear has been a bit stronger than forecast all through the life of 
Fausto. With that being said, the intensity forecast will follow 
the guidance in showing a resumed strengthening later today and a 
peak intensity in 36-60 h. Beyond that time, a gradual weakening 
trend is expected as the cyclone moves over progressively cooler 
waters and into a drier, more stable environment. The new forecast 
is nudged downward from the previous forecast for the first 48 h 
and changed little thereafter.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 16.3N 118.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 16.8N 119.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 17.2N 121.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 17.5N 123.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 17.8N 125.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  24/0000Z 18.2N 127.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 18.6N 130.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 19.5N 135.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 20.3N 140.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Fausto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 211438
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062026               
1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 120W       34 54   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 
15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  23(26)   5(31)   X(31)   X(31)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  67(67)   2(69)   X(69)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)   2(26)   X(26)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
 
15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  72(74)   4(78)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  41(41)   4(45)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   1(22)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  49(55)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)
20N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
 
25N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Fausto Graphics

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2026 15:28:03 GMT