South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracker

ABPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZAUG2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110151ZAUG2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110152ZAUG2026//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110153ZAUG2026//
NARR/REFS A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 11AUG26 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 632 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF 
WAKE ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN34 PGTW 110300) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 11AUG26 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 36.8N 143.7E, APPROXIMATELY 173 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NARITA 
AIRPORT, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
65 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN33 PGTW 110300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) AT 11AUG26 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 13W (PEILOU) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 24.4N 155.8E, APPROXIMATELY 674 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
45 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPN32 PGTW 110300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.0N 136.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 303 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS WITH CYCLING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 102337Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF 
20 TO 25 KT GRADIENT WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT OF A 
CLOSED CIRCULATION WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS, AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS 
FAVOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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