Typhoon DOLPHIN (12W) Tracker

WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 055//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 055    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z --- NEAR 27.9N 120.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 120.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 28.0N 118.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 29.3N 117.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 30.5N 115.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 31.7N 113.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 27.9N 120.2E. 09AUG26. TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN), 
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS 
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS ANIMATED RADAR 
DATA INDICATE THAT TYPHOON 12W MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST 
OF CHINA NORTHEAST OF WENZHOU AROUND 0915Z. THE SYSTEM THEREUPON 
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD, MOST LIKELY PASSING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO 
WENZHOU ITSELF AND CONTINUING TO A POSITION WEST OF RUIAN BY 1200Z. 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM RUIAN SHOW WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, 
SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION TO THE WEST OF THE STATION AT 1200Z, 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. NOW OVER LAND, TY 12W WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST FOR A 
BIT LONGER BEFORE QUICKLY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
FLANK OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. 
THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN, DISSIPATING 
OVER EAST-CENTRAL CHINA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. 
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091200Z IS 958 MB. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 
13W (PEILOU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO 
TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY 
UPDATES.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 054//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 28.1N 121.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 181 NM NORTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE
SYSTEM WITH OUTER RAINBANDS EXTENDING FROM TAIWAN TO SHANGHAI AND A
VERY COMPACT, CLOUD-FILLED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH SMALLER INNER
CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED RADAR DATA SHOWS THE EYE BECOMING
MORE RAGGED AND LESS-DEFINED AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF ZHEJIANG
PROVINCE, CHINA BUT THE WESTERN EYEWALL IN PARTICULAR IS
WELL-DEFINED AND NOW BRUSHING THE COAST NEAR SHITANGZHEN, CHINA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM DACHEN DAO TO THE NORTH REPORTED
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 45 KNOTS AND AN MSLP READING OF 965 MB AT
0600Z. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE RADAR DATA AND THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO VASTLY OUTPERFORM THE
MAJORITY OF THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES (EXCEPT THE SATCON),
WHICH ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE COMPLEX STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, BUT THE IMMINENT LANDFALL MEANS THE
SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN AND
EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO THE SHANDONG PENINSULA. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 80 KTS AT 090600Z
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 090600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 66 KTS AT 090600Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 60 KTS AT 090427Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 63 KTS AT 090530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: PROXIMITY TO LAND. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 12W WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN CHINESE COAST, SOUTH OF THE CITY OF TAIZHOU WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WESTERN EYEWALL IS ALREADY BRUSHING THE
COASTLINE AND THE LATEST RADAR ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM MAY
ATTEMPT ONE MORE TROCHOIDAL WOBBLE SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE CROSSING
THE COAST. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE STR BUILDING TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE RECEDES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. NO
CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TIME PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER EAST-CENTRAL CHINA WITHIN 48 HOURS. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, WITH
MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR
THE AI CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN STRONG AGREEMENT DEPICTING RAPID WEAKENING
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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