Tropical Depression CHAN-HOM (14W) Tracker

WTPN33 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 020    
   DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 14W
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 35.8N 137.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 35.8N 137.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 36.1N 133.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 36.1N 131.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 35.9N 136.5E.
11AUG26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 79 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAMP FUJI, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME ILL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY, AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OVER JAPAN REVEAL VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND
NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION PATTERN. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OFFSHORE
TO THE NORTH OF HONSHU WERE UP TO 30 KT IN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
DATA FROM 111501Z. NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT 14W WILL EMERGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEA OF JAPAN AS AN OPEN TROUGH AND CONTINUE QUICKLY
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111800Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (PEILOU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15W (FIFTEEN) FINAL WARNING (WTPN34 PGTW)
//
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WDPN33 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 
019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 36.0N 140.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 27 NM NORTHWEST OF NARITA AIRPORT
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) FULLY EXPOSED AND SCRAPING ACROSS CENTRAL
HONSHU. THE PLUME OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION DISSIPATED IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING LANDFALL, LEAVING 14W COMPLETELY BARREN. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE REGION SUPPORT AN INTENSITY BETWEEN 30-35
KTS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE, DOMINATED BY MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN, 30-35 KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND POOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY
EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HOURLY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY JAPAN.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: ADJUSTED WIND RADII BASED OFF OF SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN HONSHU

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH
AND A DEEP UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 35 KTS AT 111130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30-35 KTS
   SST: OVER LAND
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 14W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SHREDDING ITSELF
OVER HONSHU WHILE IT REMAINS STEERED BY THE STR TO THE NORTH AND
DEEP-LAYER LOW TO THE SOUTH, WHICH ARE INDUCING A TIGHT STEERING
GRADIENT AND DRIVING 14W DUE WEST. 14W IS FORECAST TO REEMERGE OVER
WATER IN THE SEA OF JAPAN JUST AFTER TAU 12. HOWEVER, THE
ENVIRONMENT OVER WATER WILL BE NO MORE FAVORABLE THAN THE CURRENT
ONE, WITH UPWARDS OF 40 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
ADDITIONAL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. GIVEN THOSE FACTORS, 14W IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12, AND MAY NOT SURVIVE THE
JOURNEY TO THE SEA AT ALL. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NO
LATER THAN TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIKEWISE, THE RELIABLE INTENSITY
AIDS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH
DISSIPATION AT TAU 24. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
PLACED IN LINE WITH THE HAFS-A SOLUTION AND IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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